Ayotte Proposes Extending Pay Freeze to Avert Sequestration

Yep,  It's all of the Federal Employees fault for the Sequester.  This is another person from Congress who needs to be voted out of office in the next election.

The Sequester Begins

It will start on Friday however Federal Employees need 30 Days Notice before they can actually be furloughed.  That gives Congress 30 Days to figure something out which will likely be tied to the next Continuing Resolution that will have to be passed on March 27th.

Student Loan Deliquency Rates

There has been a large surge in non payment of student loans the past 6 months as student debt continues to rise towards the 1 Trillion Dollar level.   This will be the next crisis the government will have to deal with. 

Federal Employees have Nothing to Fear

Unless you are a contractor Federal Employees have to be given a 30 Day Notice by law before they can be furloughed.  Thus in reality the government has until the end of March to figure something out before any Federal Employee will actually be furloughed.    

Beppe Grillo?

Most American's have no clue who he is but they will in the coming months.  He just won the popular vote in Italy but not the overall Election (similar to how our Electoral System works).  However he will have a large say in Italy's politics which will affect the rest of the world as well in the future.   

Visual Representation of Cuts vs Spending

Here is what a chart looks like of the Automatic Cuts vs Spending in 2013 by the Federal Government.  OMG the world as we know it will end on March 1st if these spending cuts occur..

42 Billion is the end of the World

The real cost of the Sequester will be around 42 Billion as it only applies to Fiscal Year 2013 which will end on September 30th.  42 Billion is roughly 1.1% of the current 2013 Budget.  All the posturing about the world ending due to 42 Billion in cuts is ridiculous. 

Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest stock market analysis from Amateur Investors.  Click on the link below to read it.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Feb_23_2013.htm

Blame Jack Lew

The brainchild of the Sequester is Jack Lew.  If you don't believe it then read the latest piece from the Washington Post at http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bob-woodward-obamas-sequester-deal-changer/2013/02/22/c0b65b5e-7ce1-11e2-9a75-dab0201670da_print.html

Medical Care Costs continue to Increase

Since 2000 Medical Care costs have risen nearly 60%.  Here is a breakdown by year of the % increase based on data from the Federal Reserve.  Remember there is no Inflation!!

 

Taxpayers should Decide how Government Spends it's Money

The Federal Government has a massive spending problem and if it's not contained will eventually lead to major problems sooner than later.  Realistically the Government needs to cut at least 25% of its Spending on all phases to start with.  Now since all of us pay taxes then it should be up to the citizens of the United States to decide where that money goes and what programs should be funded.

Why is the Government Broke?

Anyone with a brain can see why the Federal Government has a Spending Problem.  Based on the very conservative spending outlook from the CBO through 2020  you can see Federal Spending is forecast to be around 4.2 Trillion Dollars by 2020 and likely will be much more than that due to entitlement programs.  Notice in 1995 Federal Spending was near 1.5 Trillion so by 2020 Federal Spending will have increased by nearly 200%.  This is an unsustainable path and will lead to major problems down the road if spending isn't reduced.

Why the Federal Government is so Screwed Up

All you need to do is read the story from the Washington Post below to understand how screwed up the Federal Government is.  So the government wastes money by flying the acting director of the National Weather to Fort Worth to terminate the Director of the Southern Region.  Gee all they had to do is call him and say you are fired. Although this is a very small drop in the bucket this is why the government is broke.

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-02-01/politics/36684827_1_budget-cuts-radars-weather-service

Obama says sequester would take meat cleaver to government

Oh Please, let's stop the theatrics.  84 Billion out of a 3.8 Trillion Dollar Budget is 2.2%.  Jesus Christ the Government can't even deal with a 2.2% cut in spending.  And Boehner said he would balance the budget in 10 years.  Yeah Right. 

Military Retirment System is Underfunded by over 1 Trillion

Look folks I told you the Military Retirement System is broke but is protected by law while Social Security and FERS isn't.  Here is the latest audit for the Military Retirement Fund.  Notice in the chart below at the end of Fiscal 2012 it already has 1.1 Trillion Dollars in unfunded liabilities which will have to be funded by the government.  By the end of 2022 I project it will be near 2 Trillion.  Remember folks this retirement system is protected by law and the government will have to fund the liabilities which will add at least 2 Trillion to the National Debt if not more.  Nobody is talking about this.   

Food Stamp Usage continues to Rise

Right now nearly 48 Million people are on Food Stamps.  If the trend from 2012 continues then the number of people on Food Stamps could be near 50 Million by the end of the year.   If the economy is improving then why does the number of people on food stamps continue to rise.

Furloughs won't happen until April under Sequester

In reality nothing will happen on March 1st so Congress has until the end of March to kick the can down the road once again.  Keep in mind the latest Continuing Resolution will expire at the end of March as well so you can figure it out for yourself what will happen.  Look for another 6 Month CR accompanied by a delay of the Sequester. 

We will Remember

For those in the House who voted against the 0.5% Pay Raise we will remember who you are in 2014.  Here is the list of people that voted against the pay raise.   Notice most are Republicans. 

AL	Robert Aderholt	Republican
AL	Spencer Bachus III	Republican
AL	Jo Bonner	Republican
AL	Mike Rogers	Republican
AL	Martha Roby	Republican
AR	Crawford	Republican
AR	Tim Griffin	Republican
AR	Steve Womack	Republican
AR	Tom Cotton	Republican
AZ	Trent Franks	Republican
AZ	Matt Salmon	Republican
AZ	Paul Gosar	Republican
AZ	David Schweikert	Republican
AZ	Ron Barber	Democrat
AZ	Kyrsten Sinema	Democrat
CA	Ken Calvert	Republican
CA	Darrell Issa	Republican
CA	Zoe Lofgren	Democrat
CA	Howard “Buck” McKeon	Republican
CA	Gary Miller	Republican
CA	Devin Nunes	Republican
CA	Dana Rohrabacher	Republican
CA	Edward “Ed” Royce	Republican
CA	Jim Costa	Democrat
CA	John Campbell III	Republican
CA	Jerry McNerney	Democrat
CA	Kevin McCarthy	Republican
CA	Duncan Hunter	Republican
CA	Tom McClintock	Republican
CA	John Garamendi	Democrat
CA	Jeff Denham	Republican
CA	Janice Hahn	Democrat
CA	Doug LaMalfa	Republican
CA	Ami Bera	Democrat
CA	Paul Cook	Republican
CA	David Valadao	Republican
CA	Julia Brownley	Democrat
CA	Raul Ruiz	Democrat
CA	Scott Peters	Democrat
CO	Doug Lamborn	Republican
CO	Mike Coffman	Republican
CO	Jared Polis	Democrat
CO	Scott Tipton	Republican
CO	Cory Gardner	Republican
CT	James Himes	Democrat
DE	John Carney	Democrat
FL	Ander Crenshaw	Republican
FL	Mario Diaz-Balart	Republican
FL	John Mica	Republican
FL	Jeff Miller	Republican
FL	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	Republican
FL	W. Bill Young	Republican
FL	Vern Buchanan	Republican
FL	Gus Bilirakis	Republican
FL	Bill Posey	Republican
FL	Thomas Rooney	Republican
FL	Steve Southerland	Republican
FL	Richard Nugent	Republican
FL	Daniel Webster	Republican
FL	Dennis Ross	Republican
FL	Ted Yoho	Republican
FL	Ron DeSantis	Republican
FL	Patrick Murphy	Democrat
FL	Trey Radel	Republican
FL	Joe Garcia	Democrat
GA	Phil Gingrey	Republican
GA	Jack Kingston	Republican
GA	Tom Price	Republican
GA	Lynn Westmoreland	Republican
GA	John Barrow	Democrat
GA	Paul Broun Jr.	Republican
GA	Tom Graves	Republican
GA	Rob Woodall	Republican
GA	Austin Scott	Republican
GA	Doug Collins	Republican
IA	Steve King	Republican
IA	Tom Latham	Republican
IA	Bruce Braley	Democrat
IA	David Loebsack	Democrat
ID	Simpson	Republican
ID	Labrador	Republican
IL	John Shimkus	Republican
IL	Daniel Lipinski	Democrat
IL	Peter Roskam	Republican
IL	Bill Foster	Democrat
IL	Adam Kinzinger	Republican
IL	Randy Hultgren	Republican
IL	Bradley Schneider	Democrat
IL	William Enyart	Democrat
IL	Rodney Davis	Republican
IL	Cheri Bustos	Democrat
IN	Marlin Stutzman	Republican
IN	Todd Rokita	Republican
IN	Larry Bucshon	Republican
IN	Todd Young	Republican
IN	Jackie Walorski	Republican
IN	Susan Brooks	Republican
IN	Luke Messer	Republican
KS	Lynn Jenkins	Republican
KS	Tim Huelskamp	Republican
KS	Kevin Yoder	Republican
KS	Mike Pompeo	Republican
KY	Rogers	Republican
KY	Ed Whitfield	Republican
KY	Brett Guthrie	Republican
KY	Thomas Massie	Republican
KY	Barr	Republican
LA	Rodney Alexander	Republican
LA	Charles Boustany Jr.	Republican
LA	Steve Scalise	Republican
LA	Bill Cassidy	Republican
LA	John Fleming	Republican
MA	John Tierney	Democrat
MD	Andy Harris	Republican
ME	Michael Michaud	Democrat
MI	Dave Camp	Republican
MI	Candice Miller	Republican
MI	Mike Rogers	Republican
MI	Fred Upton	Republican
MI	Tim Walberg	Republican
MI	Dan Benishek	Republican
MI	Bill Huizenga	Republican
MI	Justin Amash	Republican
MI	Kerry Bentivolio	Republican
MN	John Kline	Republican
MN	Timothy Walz	Democrat
MN	Michele Bachmann	Republican
MN	Erik Paulsen	Republican
MO	Sam Graves	Republican
MO	Blaine Luetkemeyer	Republican
MO	Vicky Hartzler	Republican
MO	Billy Long	Republican
MO	Ann Wagner	Republican
MS	Gregg Harper	Republican
MS	Alan Nunnelee	Republican
MS	Steven Palazzo	Republican
MT	Steve Daines	Republican
NC	Howard Coble	Republican
NC	Walter Jones Jr.	Republican
NC	Mike McIntyre	Democrat
NC	Virginia Foxx	Republican
NC	Patrick McHenry	Republican
NC	Renee Ellmers	Republican
NC	Richard Hudson	Republican
NC	Robert Pittenger	Republican
NC	Mark Meadows	Republican
NC	George Holding	Republican
ND	Kevin Cramer	Republican
NE	Lee Terry	Republican
NE	Jeff Fortenberry	Republican
NE	Adrian Smith	Republican
NH	Ann Kuster	Democrat
NJ	Rodney Frelinghuysen	Republican
NJ	Scott Garrett	Republican
NJ	Leonard Lance	Republican
NJ	Jon Runyan	Republican
NM	Pearce	Republican
NV	Joseph Heck	Republican
NV	Mark Amodei	Republican
NY	Daniel Maffei	Democrat
NY	William Owens	Democrat
NY	Tom Reed II	Republican
NY	Michael Grimm	Republican
NY	Christopher Gibson	Republican
NY	Richard Hanna	Republican
NY	Sean Maloney	Democrat
NY	Chris Collins	Republican
OH	Steve Chabot	Republican
OH	Tim Ryan	Democrat
OH	Tiberi	Republican
OH	Michael Turner	Republican
OH	Jim Jordan	Republican
OH	Robert Latta	Republican
OH	Bill Johnson	Republican
OH	Steve Stivers	Republican
OH	James Renacci	Republican
OH	Bob Gibbs	Republican
OH	Brad Wenstrup	Republican
OH	David Joyce	Republican
OK	Tom Cole	Republican
OK	Frank Lucas	Republican
OK	James Lankford	Republican
OK	Jim Bridenstine	Republican
OK	Markwayne Mullin	Republican
OR	Peter DeFazio	Democrat
OR	Greg Walden	Republican
PA	Jim Gerlach	Republican
PA	Tim Murphy	Republican
PA	Joseph Pitts	Republican
PA	Michael Fitzpatrick	Republican
PA	Charles Dent	Republican
PA	Bill Shuster	Republican
PA	Glenn Thompson	Republican
PA	Mike Kelly	Republican
PA	Patrick Meehan	Republican
PA	Lou Barletta	Republican
PA	Scott Perry	Republican
PA	Keith Rothfus	Republican
SC	Joe Wilson	Republican
SC	Jeff Duncan	Republican
SC	Trey Gowdy	Republican
SC	Mick Mulvaney	Republican
SC	Tom Rice	Republican
SD	Kristi Noem	Republican
TN	Marsha Blackburn	Republican
TN	Jim Cooper	Democrat
TN	Duncan Hunter	Republican
TN	David Roe	Republican
TN	Fleischmann	Republican
TN	Scott DesJarlais	Republican
TN	Diane Black	Republican
TN	Stephen Fincher	Republican
TX	Joe Barton	Republican
TX	Kevin Brady	Republican
TX	Michael Burgess	Republican
TX	John Carter	Republican
TX	Kay Granger	Republican
TX	Gene Green	Democrat
TX	Ralph Hall	Republican
TX	Jeb Hensarling	Republican
TX	Sam Johnson	Republican
TX	Pete Sessions	Republican
TX	Lamar Smith	Republican
TX	Mac Thornberry	Republican
TX	Randy Neugebauer	Republican
TX	Louie Gohmert Jr.	Republican
TX	Ted Poe	Republican
TX	Al Green	Democrat
TX	Michael McCaul	Republican
TX	Michael Conaway	Republican
TX	Kenny Marchant	Republican
TX	Henry Cuellar	Democrat
TX	Steve Stockman	Republican
TX	Pete Olson	Republican
TX	Bill Flores	Republican
TX	Blake Farenthold	Republican
TX	Randy Weber	Republican
TX	Pete Gallego	Democrat
TX	Roger Williams	Republican
TX	Filemon Vela	Democrat
UT	Jim Matheson	Democrat
UT	Jason Chaffetz	Republican
UT	Chris Stewart	Republican
VA	Eric Cantor	Republican
VA	Bob Goodlatte	Republican
VA	Robert Hurt	Republican
VA	Morgan Griffith	Republican
WA	Doc Hastings	Republican
WA	Cathy McMorris Rodgers	Republican
WA	David Reichert	Republican
WA	Jaime Herrera Beutler	Republican
WA	Suzan DelBene	Democrat
WI	Petri	Republican
WI	Paul Ryan	Republican
WI	James Sensenbrenner Jr.	Republican
WI	Sean Duffy	Republican
WI	Reid Ribble	Republican
WV	Shelley Capito	Republican
WV	Nick Rahall II	Democrat
WV	David McKinley	Republican
WY	Cynthia Lummis	Republican

Screw Congress

They just took away the massive 0.5% pay raise Federal Employees were supposed to get this past Spring.  As I mentioned yesterday the CPI has risen nearly 6% the past 3 years while Employees have not seen a raise.  Meanwhile the idiots in Congress who sit around and do nothing all year make over $170,000 (not including all of the other perks they receive) and waste taxpayer money.   Everyone of these clowns in the House who voted against the pay raise should be voted out of office in 2014.

CBO Forecasted Tax Receipts through 2023

I don't know what the people at the CBO are smoking but they are forecasting individual tax receipts to double by 2023!!!  All I can say is Wow!!   Apparently it's all smooth sailing through 2023.  They only way this is going to happen is if some new great technology is developed that leads to massive job growth or taxes are raised substantially in the coming years.   

The Non Debt Ceiling

The Debt Ceiling was reached on 12/31/12 but Congress kicked the can down the road until April 15th with no Limit on the Debt.  So far the US has added.over 130 Billion in new debt since then.  By the end of the year it will be well over 17 Trillion.

Should Federal Employees get a Raise

Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Federal Employees should receive a 0.56% increase in pay for 2013 based on the yearly change.  Keep in mind no raises were given in 2011 and 2012 however the CPI rose 3% and 2% respectively.  Thus in hindsight Federal Employees over the past 2 years should have seen a 5% raise in pay to offset inflation.  However back in 2010 no raise should have been given as the CPI actually fell slightly in 2009.    

There is No Inflation

If I hear one more idiot on TV tell me there is no inflation then they never look at a chart of the CPI.  Notice since 1970 the CPI has risen nearly 500% and continues to rise.  But remember there is no inflation.  The only time prices actually fell for an extended period of time was from 1920 through the early 1930's (points A to B).

 

The CBO is Nuts

I had to get a laugh out of this projection by the CBO regarding projected Social Security Income through 2023.  According to their projections Social Security Income will basically double in the next 10 years.  Where are all of the jobs going to come from to double the income?  The only way I can see this happening is if the Social Security Taxes are raised in the coming years.

Will the Gas Fields in East China Sea lead to a Military Conflict

Virtually nobody in the USA has probably heard of the Gas Fields in the East China Sea.  These Gas Fields may end up starting a military conflict between China and Japan.  China claims these Gas Fields are in their territory while Japan claims that some of them reside in their territory.  Thus you can see why this could spark a military conflict at some point.    

$85 Billion Sequester

Let's see the Federal Government will spend close to 3.8 Trillion Dollars in 2013 and the automatic spending cuts are supposed to total 85 Billion which is less than 3% of the Budget for 2013.   Meanwhile Congress and the President can't even come to grips with cutting less than 3% of the Federal Budget.  You can mark my words there will never be a balanced budget.

Historical Returns in the S&P 500

Many Government Employees have little clue to how the S&P Composite has performed prior to the 1980's.  The Thrift Savings Plan was implemented in the late 1980's when the stock market went through the greatest Bull Market of all time since it's inception in the late 1700's.  The chart below is the Historical Performance by Decade in the S&P Composite since the 1790's.  As you can clearly see the 1980's and 1990's saw the S&P gain 227% and 316% respectively which was way above the Long Term Decade Mean of 63%.

In the first decade of the 21st Century the S&P lost 24% which was the first decade since the 1930's to have a negative return.  Keep in mind there hasn't been two decades in a row where the S&P has had negative returns so that means the period from 2010 through 2019 will have a positive return.  However in 
my humble opinion the period of the 1980's and 1990's will not be repeated for several more decades and overall Returns by Decade going forward will likely revert back to or below the Long Term Mean of 63%.  Notice there have been several periods where the Decade Performance has been Positive but below the Long Term Mean of 63%.  Thus going forward investors may have to deal with Average Yearly Returns of 5% or less in the "C" Fund which tracks the S&P.

  

Can't Even Propose a Budget on Time

Obama is good at being late.  He is never on time for press conferences and he can't even get a budget to Congress by the due date which is February 1st.  My guess is there will be no budget in 2013 or 2014 which will mean there hasn't been one passed since 2009. 

What happened on February 2nd, 1913

One of the most hated things in American History occurred on February 2nd, 1913.  This is when Congress made it legal for a Federal Income Tax to be levied on Americans.

Social Security is in Big Trouble

Look folks the trend in the Employment Population Ratio (EPR) is very disturbing as there has been a dramatic drop from the late 1990's.  Back in the late 1990's the EPR was at 65% and is now down to almost 57.5%.  If the Employment Population Ratio breaks below 57.5% then it cold easily drop back to levels not seen since the 1950's and 1960's which was below 55%.   There is no way in hell Social Security will remain solvent if the Employment Population Ratio continues to drop as fewer people will be paying into the system.