Will the Ratings Agencies Pull the Trigger?

If there is a last minute Fiscal Cliff deal by January 1st I expect there will be no spending cuts at all.  Thus Fitch, Moody's and the other rating agencies should immediately downgrade the US on January 2nd.  The ratings agencies have given the US over a year to get it's deficit spending under control however the government has done nothing to cut spending and is on pace to have another year of 1 Trillion deficits.