Historical Returns by Decade for the S&P Composite

Most Federal Workers are covered by FERS with the TSP a major part involving the TSP.  The "C" Fund tracks the S&P 500.  Data has been extrapolated back in time to by a few people with the chart below showing the performance by decade going back to 1800.

As the chart shows prior to the last decade (2000-2009) the S&P had three decades out of four in which it gained over 100% with the period from 1990-1999 gaining a massive 345%.  My guess is none of us will ever see that type of return ever again over a decade which is an average of 34.5% per year in the "C" Fund. 

Meanwhile from 2000-2009 the S&P lost 15.5% for the decade so unless you were into Market Timing many people saw their TSP Retirement Accounts stagnant or even lose money.  On the positive side each decade that has had a net loss since 1800 was followed by a positive gain the next decade ranging from 30% to as high as 126%.  These decades are denoted by the purple boxes in the chart below.  Thus one would assume the odds of having this decade ending up with a negative return are extremely low.

 

End of Year Market Analysis

The End of Year Market Analysis as provided by Amateur Investors

at http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Dec_30_2011.htm

Federal Deficits in Real Dollars

Here are the Yearly Deficits in terms of Real Dollars since 1940. 

US Yearly Budget Deficits

The table below shows the Yearly Budget Deficits since 1940.  The last three years (2009-2011) the deficits have exceeded 1 Trillion Dollars.  In fact the deficit for 2011 came in slightly higher than 2010.  The estimates for 2012 through 2015 are denoted by the letter "E".  

100 billion until debt limit is reached

Well the last rise in the Debt Ceiling didn't last long as we are now within 100 billion of the new ceiling based on the December 23rd Treasury Report. 

 

Weekend Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest Weekend Stock Market Analysis provided by Amateur Investors at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Dec_17_2011.htm

Average Pay Rates for all US Jobs (Civilian vs Private Sector)

The Average Mean Hourly Wage for every job defined by the BLS in 2010 is provided in the link below.  Also the % difference in hourly pay for each job is provided to compare the Civilian and Private Pay Rates.

Click here for a table of the Civilian versus Private Pay Rates as determined by the BLS in 2010.

US asks Iran to Return Drone

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-wants-his-drone-back

Great gesture by the US.  I'm sure Iran will just hand it back to us.   Boy does this make us look stupid.  How would the US respond if a Russian Drone landed by accident in the US.  I'm sure we would hand it back over to them immediately with no questions asked.

Government Jobs that Pay Less than the Private Sector

Here are the Top 10 Government Jobs that pay less than the Private Sector by hour based on 2010 data from the BLS.

	Civilian   Private   Mean % Mean Job Hourly Difference Hourly   Wage   Wage Agricultural and food scientists................................ 27.47 -31.9 40.31 Miscellaneous healthcare practitioner and technical workers....... 19.69 -23.1 25.62 Engineering teachers, postsecondary........................... 60.58 -17.3 73.29 Surgeons........................................................ 126.15 -16.9 151.82 Engineering and architecture teachers, postsecondary............ 60.21 -15.8 71.55 Political science teachers, postsecondary..................... 43.23 -15.3 51.06 Biological science teachers, postsecondary.................... 51.68 -15.2 60.95 Anesthesiologists............................................... 117.06 -14.9 137.53 Life sciences teachers, postsecondary........................... 52.19 -14.4 60.95 Physics teachers, postsecondary............................... 56.47 -14.3 65.88

Government Jobs that pay more than the Private Sector

From the BLS website for 2010 here are the Top 10 Government Jobs that pay considerably more than the Private Sector based on Hourly Wage on a percentage basis.

	Civilian   Private   Mean % Mean Job Hourly Difference Hourly   Wage   Wage Bailiffs, correctional officers, and jailers...................... 19.17 59.2 12.04 Primary, secondary, and special education school teachers......... 37.05 50.2 24.66 Kindergarten teachers, except special education............... 35.20 47.1 23.93 Preschool and kindergarten teachers............................. 22.92 45.3 15.77 Elementary school teachers, except special education.......... 38.58 43.5 26.89 Police officers................................................... 27.74 41.4 19.62 Police and sheriff's patrol officers............................ 27.74 41.4 19.62 Elementary and middle school teachers........................... 38.39 41.0 27.23 Education administrators, elementary and secondary school....... 46.85 39.1 33.67 elementary school.......................................... 37.72 37.1 27.51

Weekend Market Analysis

As far as the near term once again it still looks like a possible "WXY" Double Zig Zag pattern from the early October low of 1075. "W" rallied up to 1293 while "X" dropped back to 1158. Meanwhile we currently would be in "Y" which should have an "abc" look to it as "b" of Y may have completed at the 1232 level on Thursday. The target for "c" of Y still looks to be in the 1320's which would coincide with the trend line connecting the April and July highs (black line). 

This video pretty much sums up what we are facing as a country

Defense Spending since 1940

Notice the large increase in Defense Spending since 2000 which has more than doubled.  Looks like the Defense Contractors have made a ton of money the last decade.

Federal Budget since 1940

The chart below shows the Federal Budget has been in a steady climb for the past 70 years.  Based on the current path the budget would exceed 7 Trillion Dollars by 2020 if it continues at the same pace.

Screw the Federal Employees

You really got to love the new house bill that wants to extend the Payroll Tax Cut for 2012. 

Check out one of the key points in the bill which will screw Federal Employees even more.

The FERS pension formula multiplier for basic retirees would change to 0.7% points, instead of 1% (or 1.1% with 20 or more years of service).

Are Federal Workers Overpaid?

That is not an easy question to answer as the statistics can be altered to support any argument.  The Federal Unions would argue that Federal Workers are paid as they should be while the Right Wing groups continue to argue Federal Workers are vastly overpaid.  The truth is probably somewhere in between and it would take a detailed study of each job field both in the private and federal sectors to really know what the truth is.      

Federal Pay Raises

The chart below shows Federal Pay Raises since 1975 based on the GS Scale.  No raises occurred in 2011 or will occur in 2012.  The long term trend has definitely trended lower over the long haul.

Food Stamps

Notice the continued rise in people receiving food stamps with nearly 15% of the population now getting them.  If the economy is improving then why are the numbers steadily increasing.