Oil is getting ready for a decent move

For those that are watching Gas Prices...the Brent Crude Futures are exhibiting a Cup an Handle pattern.  If they break out to the upside look for a rise back to the all time high in the upper $140's which would mean average Gas Prices in the US would rise well above the $4 level by the Fall.  Meanwhile if Brent Crude takes out the bottom of the Handle which is around $120 then a decent drop back to $100 will occur with Gas Prices dropping on average around 50 to 60 cents per gallon. 

Ryan Budget passes the House

However it will never get through the Senate.  My guess is we are looking at a Continuing Resolution as we start the 2013 Budget Year on October 1st.

$800 Billion and counting

Well based on today's Department of Treasury Report we are only 800 Billion within the new debt ceiling limit.  Since on average the deficit has been growing over $100 billion a month it looks like it will be breached near the November election.

Republican's say they can balance the Budget in 5 Years

which is a bunch of BS.  But here is the article at
http://rsc.jordan.house.gov/Solutions/rscfy2013budget.htm

The only way the budget will ever be balanced is if there is a tremendous drop in government spending.  As we all know that will never happen unless it's forced upon us like what happened in Greece. 

Neither Party has a Budget for 2013 that will pass

Neither the Democrats or the Republicans have a Budget Proposal for 2013 that will pass.  Thus they will just kick the can down the road for another year as the deficits continue to pile up.  This is going to lead to major problems a lot sooner than most people think.

Here we go again...the Ryan Plan

The Republicans want to freeze Federal Pay through 2015 and reduce the workforce by 10%.  Thank you Mr. Ryan.  Keep in mind there is no way in hell Ryan's Plan will ever get passed by both the House and Senate.  There is no doubt we need to find a way to reduce deficits however by attacking federal workers is not the way to do it.  I can think of several ways the government can reduce expenses and I'm sure many of you can as well.    

Weekend Stock Market Analysis for March 17, 2012

The Weekend Stock Market Analysis is at

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Mar_17_2012.htm

Trends in Federal Revenue

There is a disturbing trend developing in Federal Revenues as the year over year change is now trending  downward when using a 6 Month Moving Average (black line).  If this trend continues in the months ahead that spells big trouble for the US Deficit. 

Why 2013 is going to be a Freaking Mess

No matter who is elected president in November, 2013 is going to be a big mess.  By the end of 2012 the new debt ceiling will be reached,  the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2012 and the drop in the FICA Tax Rate will also expire.  Also there is talk about taxing those who put in money in a tax deferred 401K plan as well along with getting rid of certain itemized deductions.        

Senator Pat Roberts is not a Federal Empoylee supporter

This guy has tried to sneak another pay freeze into the Highway Bill.  See link below.

http://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2012/03/pay-freeze-extension-table-again/41431/

Weekend Market Analysis for March 10th

The latest Stock Market Analysis is at

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Mar_10_2012.htm

Latest CBO Budget Analysis

The federal government incurred a budget deficit of $578 billion in the first five months of fiscal year 2012 (that is, October 2011 through February 2012), CBO estimates in its latest Monthly Budget Review—$63 billion less than the shortfall recorded for the same period last year. Without shifts in the timing of certain payments and in the recording of tax refunds, however, the deficit would have been close to $600 billion.

So in reality thus far in 2012 the Budget Deficit is really only 41 billion lower than last year at this time,  Wow the government is really saving some money now.  Keep in mind all of this will be adjusted later anyway so I expect the real deficit to be more than 2011 by the time all of the adjustments are made.

Weekend Stock Market Analysis for March 3, 2012

The latest Stock Market Analysis is at
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Mar_3_2012.htm

Food Stamp usage continues to rise

The number of people on Food Stamps continue to rise as show in the chart below with over 46.3 million people now receiving them.  The data is through December 2011.  Keep in mind the budget year for the Government starts on October 1st so the data through December 2011 is for the 1st Quarter of 2012.  If the economy is improving why are more people applying for food stamps?